Fantasy Overdrive · Official ATS picks · NBA and college sports coverage
NFL experimental picks
ATS, moneyline and over/under forecasts published before kickoff. These models have not established an advantage over the market. Each first published selection and price stays locked.
Experimental record
This record starts with this release and is separate from the official ATS record. One hypothetical unit risked per published selection; no bets are placed.
| Market | W–L–P | Void | Pending | Quoted units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATS | 0–0–0 | 0 | 13 | 0.00 |
| Moneyline | 0–0–0 | 0 | 13 | 0.00 |
| Over/under | 0–0–0 | 0 | 14 | 0.00 |
Inputs last checked Nov 7, 2026, 8:01 AM ET. Quotes are publication snapshots, not a promise of current availability.
Washington Commanders at New York Giants
Under 45.5 · -110
BetUS · Lean only — no positive estimated value
44.8 total points. Selection probability 52.2%; estimated value -0.4% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 12, 2026, 8:15 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings
Over 44 · -102
LowVig.ag · Lean only — no positive estimated value
44.0 total points. Selection probability 48.4%; estimated value -1.1% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 9, 2026, 8:15 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears
Over 47.5 · -105
DraftKings · Lean only — no positive estimated value
47.8 total points. Selection probability 51.0%; estimated value -0.4% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 8:20 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Under 39.5 · -107
LowVig.ag · Experimental positive-value lean
38.8 total points. Selection probability 52.2%; estimated value 1.0% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 4:25 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots
Under 45.5 · -113
BetRivers · Lean only — no positive estimated value
44.7 total points. Selection probability 52.5%; estimated value -1.0% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 4:25 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers
Under 40.5 · -105
FanDuel · Lean only — no positive estimated value
40.2 total points. Selection probability 50.9%; estimated value -0.6% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 4:05 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers
Under 44.5 · -106
LowVig.ag · Lean only — no positive estimated value
44.4 total points. Selection probability 50.5%; estimated value -1.9% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts
Under 52 · -111
Pinnacle · Lean only — no positive estimated value
51.6 total points. Selection probability 49.8%; estimated value -2.2% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins
Over 50 · -102
LowVig.ag · Lean only — no positive estimated value
49.9 total points. Selection probability 48.3%; estimated value -1.4% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders
Over 47.5 · -107
LowVig.ag · Lean only — no positive estimated value
47.9 total points. Selection probability 51.1%; estimated value -1.1% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs
Over 47.5 · -110
FanDuel · Experimental positive-value lean
48.5 total points. Selection probability 53.0%; estimated value 1.2% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints
Under 42.5 · -107
BetRivers · Lean only — no positive estimated value
42.4 total points. Selection probability 50.4%; estimated value -2.5% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Under 38.5 · -105
FanDuel · Experimental positive-value lean
37.9 total points. Selection probability 51.7%; estimated value 1.0% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons
Over 52.5 · -105
DraftKings · Experimental positive-value lean
52.9 total points. Selection probability 51.4%; estimated value 0.3% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 9:30 AM ET. Started — archived selection.
Result pending.
Current input gaps
Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers: Matching pregame schedule and quote required.
Washington Commanders at New York Giants: ATS: three fresh paired books and current matching team-only ratings required. Moneyline: three fresh paired moneyline books plus matching ATS inputs required.
Historical testing and limitations
Whole-season walk-forward. No candidate has established an advantage over the market. Historical quote timestamps are unverified; these are retrospective diagnostics, not executable Saturday returns.
ATS
| Forecast | Games | RMSE ↓ | MAE ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|
| market | 1679 | 12.641 | 9.759 |
| raw05 | 1679 | 12.641 | 9.754 |
| raw10 | 1679 | 12.644 | 9.751 |
| raw30 | 1679 | 12.681 | 9.772 |
| qb30 | 1679 | 12.671 | 9.767 |
| residual | 1679 | 12.643 | 9.758 |
Totals
| Forecast | Games | RMSE ↓ | MAE ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|
| market | 1737 | 13.048 | 10.305 |
| residual | 1737 | 13.051 | 10.305 |
Moneyline
1674 non-tied games. Brier score: market 0.2109, candidate 0.2110. Log loss: market 0.6092, candidate 0.6095. Lower is better.
All three paired uncertainty intervals include zero. Probability estimates remain experimental. Forecasts use current market prices as their baseline, a small fitted residual adjustment, and no explicit injury, weather or pace point adjustment in v1.
Showing up to 60 selections for this market; the record includes all published selections. Owner: download the full forecast archive.
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