Fantasy Overdrive · Official ATS picks · NBA and college sports coverage
NFL experimental picks
ATS, moneyline and over/under forecasts published before kickoff. These models have not established an advantage over the market. Each first published selection and price stays locked.
Experimental record
This record starts with this release and is separate from the official ATS record. One hypothetical unit risked per published selection; no bets are placed.
| Market | W–L–P | Void | Pending | Quoted units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATS | 0–0–0 | 0 | 13 | 0.00 |
| Moneyline | 0–0–0 | 0 | 13 | 0.00 |
| Over/under | 0–0–0 | 0 | 14 | 0.00 |
Inputs last checked Nov 7, 2026, 8:01 AM ET. Quotes are publication snapshots, not a promise of current availability.
Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings · +150
FanDuel · Lean only — no positive estimated value
39.7% home win probability (excluding ties). Selection probability 39.7% conditional on no tie; estimated value -0.9% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 9, 2026, 8:15 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · +225
BetUS · Lean only — no positive estimated value
69.7% home win probability (excluding ties). Selection probability 30.3% conditional on no tie; estimated value -1.5% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 8:20 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals · +350
DraftKings · Experimental positive-value lean
76.5% home win probability (excluding ties). Selection probability 23.5% conditional on no tie; estimated value 5.7% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 4:25 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots
Green Bay Packers · +148
BetOnline.ag · Lean only — no positive estimated value
60.2% home win probability (excluding ties). Selection probability 39.8% conditional on no tie; estimated value -1.4% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 4:25 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers · +216
Pinnacle · Experimental positive-value lean
31.8% home win probability (excluding ties). Selection probability 31.8% conditional on no tie; estimated value 0.5% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 4:05 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers · +130
Bovada · Lean only — no positive estimated value
43.0% home win probability (excluding ties). Selection probability 43.0% conditional on no tie; estimated value -1.1% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts · +205
FanDuel · Lean only — no positive estimated value
32.3% home win probability (excluding ties). Selection probability 32.3% conditional on no tie; estimated value -1.6% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins · +265
FanDuel · Experimental positive-value lean
29.5% home win probability (excluding ties). Selection probability 29.5% conditional on no tie; estimated value 7.8% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders · +194
FanDuel · Experimental positive-value lean
34.4% home win probability (excluding ties). Selection probability 34.4% conditional on no tie; estimated value 1.2% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs
New York Jets · +420
FanDuel · Experimental positive-value lean
80.6% home win probability (excluding ties). Selection probability 19.4% conditional on no tie; estimated value 0.9% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints
Cleveland Browns · +153
Bovada · Lean only — no positive estimated value
60.7% home win probability (excluding ties). Selection probability 39.3% conditional on no tie; estimated value -0.6% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
New York Giants · -155
DraftKings · Experimental positive-value lean
38.7% home win probability (excluding ties). Selection probability 61.3% conditional on no tie; estimated value 0.8% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 1:00 PM ET. Pregame selection; price locked at publication.
Result pending.
Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons · +150
DraftKings · Lean only — no positive estimated value
39.7% home win probability (excluding ties). Selection probability 39.7% conditional on no tie; estimated value -0.8% per unit. These are experimental estimates.
Published Nov 6, 2026, 7:05 PM ET · kickoff Nov 8, 2026, 9:30 AM ET. Started — archived selection.
Result pending.
Current input gaps
Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers: Matching pregame schedule and quote required.
Washington Commanders at New York Giants: ATS: three fresh paired books and current matching team-only ratings required. Moneyline: three fresh paired moneyline books plus matching ATS inputs required.
Historical testing and limitations
Whole-season walk-forward. No candidate has established an advantage over the market. Historical quote timestamps are unverified; these are retrospective diagnostics, not executable Saturday returns.
ATS
| Forecast | Games | RMSE ↓ | MAE ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|
| market | 1679 | 12.641 | 9.759 |
| raw05 | 1679 | 12.641 | 9.754 |
| raw10 | 1679 | 12.644 | 9.751 |
| raw30 | 1679 | 12.681 | 9.772 |
| qb30 | 1679 | 12.671 | 9.767 |
| residual | 1679 | 12.643 | 9.758 |
Totals
| Forecast | Games | RMSE ↓ | MAE ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|
| market | 1737 | 13.048 | 10.305 |
| residual | 1737 | 13.051 | 10.305 |
Moneyline
1674 non-tied games. Brier score: market 0.2109, candidate 0.2110. Log loss: market 0.6092, candidate 0.6095. Lower is better.
All three paired uncertainty intervals include zero. Probability estimates remain experimental. Forecasts use current market prices as their baseline, a small fitted residual adjustment, and no explicit injury, weather or pace point adjustment in v1.
Showing up to 60 selections for this market; the record includes all published selections. Owner: download the full forecast archive.
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